Buy US Saving Bonds with Your Stimulus Check! (If you can) #Coronavirus

We live in trying times. A virus pandemic is upon us that is projected to kill over 60,000 people. This will surpass the 57,933 casualties from the Vietnam War. It does not come close to the 405,000 Americans who gave their lives in WWII, or the 620,000 who died in the Civil War. However, this is a new kind of war that requires a new kind of battle strategy. In the past our federalist system worked well when emergencies allowed us to centralize command and control through exceptions like the  Gulf of Ton-kin Resolution and the Patriot Act. It will take more than invoking the Defense Production Act to fight the outbreak that is currently plaguing our nation. This act was not meant to fight epidemics. It was created to give the president command and control to marshal military supplies in the Korean War. To fight a war against an unseen enemy like a virus we will need new kinds of resources, a coordinated strategy and structural change. An old Chamber of Commerce friend of mine Steve Lacey used to say, "Business can survive anything, but if the system goes down all bets are off." This is why at the end of the post I am recommending that we buy US Savings Bonds with our stimulus checks. 

One of the best ways to evaluate the American response is to consider how other countries have responded to the virus. These responses range from Taiwan with strict centralized command and control to Sweden who is not currently enforcing social distancing. In Taiwan they have less than 400 cases tested, and a total of six deaths. Taiwan's reporting can be questioned, but I trust it more than main land China. In Sweden they have 13,822 cases with 1511 deaths in a country that is using a decentralized volunteer strategy. This can be compared with the United States that has 716,000 cases and 38,000 deaths. Our current mixture of exceptional centralized command and control with decentralized federalism is not producing the best results. The current death tolls can be compared. Taiwan has a .9%, Sweden 11% and the United States a 5% mortality rate. Despite these varying strategies Sweden will be in the best position to recover economically after the crisis, and Taiwan will have the fewest deaths. 

What would increased command and control look like in our health care system. In China health care is considered an entitlement. In the United States it is considered a benefit. Nationalized Health Insurance would probably be the best strategy now that our current health care system has been exposed by this pandemic. A health system that is nationalized is in a position to respond to a pandemic. Doctors and health care providers should be empowered to act quickly to end a threat. Taiwan used a strategy of testing, tracing and quarantine. This would be contrasted with the strategy of the United States which could be explained as quarantine, test and trace. In defense of this strategy the asymptomatic nature of this virus makes testing extremely difficult with 331 million people. The logical strategy is to employ a centralized command and control strategy similar to the United States military. This would validate the successful deployment of the United States military medical corp. We need a a health care system that can respond to crisis like the medical military Corp. did. Health care providers should be employed by the government, with terms of service. This can be phased in by adding a minimum service deployment as a part of every medical residency. 

This post sounds very liberal so far, but we are about to turn the corner. The solution to the epidemic must be a bipartisan solution. There is an economic cancer in our country that has been exposed by this pandemic. This cancer is the federal deficit. We are projected to spend seven trillion dollars more than what we take in by the end of this crisis. Before the crisis we were spending one trillion dollars more than we take in. Some would question why the deficit matters. They ask questions like who do we owe?  The GDP of the United States last year was 20.5 Trillion. The Chinese GDP is 13.6 trillion. When you calculate the seven trillion dollar deficit we are dead even with China. This matters because other countries GDP is rising faster than the United States. In other words they are catching up. While this can be perceived as a good thing, we must also realize there are consequences. Countries like China are buying our debt. Thirty percent of our 18 trillion dollar debt has been purchased by China and Japan. They also have currencies of their own that base their international trading value on the United States dollar. This makes the dollar the world's reserve currency. If trends continue and China redeems the bonds they purchase, then their currency threatens to replace the U.S. dollar. The only question remaining is when will that happen? If we lose the dollar as the world currency of trade our standard of living will decrease. We should not win the battle of the Coronavirus and lose the war of poverty in our country. 

Our capitalist system has increased GDP, federal revenues and living standards consistently for over 200 years. Abandoning the system can not be the answer. There must be both a decrease in federal spending and an increase in federal revenues to unravel a habit of printing money irresponsibly. The federal deficit was already a problem before the pandemic. People's eyes glaze over and rationalize the federal debt based upon debt to revenue ratios. These ratios are rapidly moving toward the tipping point of debt. The United States has one of the most expensive health care systems in the world. Structural change is necessary to bring financial balance to research, medicine, facilities, and personnel. If we cap the financial health system, and guarantee health care for all, then we will cut spending. 

Using tariffs to pay down the deficit has strong historic roots. Alexander Hamilton used tariffs against England, and sold bonds to rich people in our own country to pay for the Revolutionary War. If we are going to owe someone money it should be ourselves. The American people currently own 70% of the American debt. In addition 28% of that debt has been paid for through Social Security Trust funds. This means that less than 50% of our debt is funded by the middle class and affluent citizens of our country. If we truly want to be patriot during these times of pandemic, then we should buy US Saving bonds with our stimulus checks. The affluent will follow the middle class's example. The answer can not be to grow this portion of our debt. The answer must be to reduce debt, and at the same time grow a patriotic class of bond buyers. We need to balanced our budget. We should also consider tariffs aimed at predatory pricing practices, and President Trump deserves credit for this. A conservative solution with a strong liberal component could be the answer. This way both the Democrats and Republicans have skin in the game, and  these strong structural changes can become politically possible.